Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.793921 1.871178 1.952372 2.044504 2.146706 2.257276 2.386873
2025-11-23 1.697446 1.796850 1.904878 2.032168 2.179661 2.347304 2.555521
2025-11-30 1.641630 1.756983 1.885571 2.041640 2.229036 2.451228 2.742076
2025-12-07 1.565649 1.687319 1.825164 1.995739 2.205527 2.461722 2.810203
2025-12-14 1.518981 1.647762 1.795932 1.982763 2.218089 2.514286 2.933986
2025-12-21 1.475063 1.608577 1.764130 1.963343 2.219373 2.550200 3.036588
2025-12-28 1.456256 1.597786 1.765108 1.983384 2.270857 2.654684 3.246743
2026-01-04 1.444612 1.594576 1.774469 2.013573 2.336571 2.783262 3.510603
2026-01-11 1.418030 1.571715 1.757936 2.008725 2.353735 2.843425 3.674889
2026-01-18 1.397586 1.555450 1.748677 2.012400 2.382108 2.921528 3.880916
2026-01-25 1.362026 1.519068 1.712287 1.977832 2.353800 2.910529 3.926529
2026-02-01 1.338999 1.497672 1.694288 1.967091 2.358708 2.950900 4.073052
2026-02-08 1.317335 1.477983 1.678572 1.959796 2.369703 3.004389 4.261294
2026-02-15 1.296058 1.458068 1.661732 1.949937 2.375877 3.050016 4.443197
2026-02-22 1.283913 1.449345 1.659098 1.959465 2.411411 3.147834 4.762790
2026-03-01 1.252650 1.415145 1.621572 1.917979 2.365814 3.100535 4.735142
2026-03-08 1.234366 1.397335 1.605432 1.906400 2.366198 3.134652 4.914350
2026-03-15 1.214701 1.377255 1.585653 1.888766 2.355922 3.148389 5.046066
2026-03-22 1.209409 1.375755 1.590795 1.907295 2.404252 3.274947 5.525334
2026-03-29 1.207661 1.378775 1.602038 1.935069 2.469314 3.442024 6.216912
2026-04-05 1.194744 1.366647 1.592044 1.930674 2.480266 3.502645 6.598012
2026-04-12 1.185070 1.358592 1.587412 1.934075 2.504514 3.593610 7.154263
2026-04-19 1.163929 1.334794 1.560301 1.902372 2.466421 3.547588 7.125775